We’re officially in a bear market. The good news is that the market has two ends to it, meaning that we can profit from stock price appreciation as well as depreciation. Because of this, I have compiled a list of overvalued stocks to sell in this bear market.
I thought long and hard about how I’d structure this article. I will present you all with stocks that are trading above intrinsic value. In addition, I delved into the cyclical stage of the economy to figure out which sectors will likely slump into an extended downward spiral. Lastly, I considered an investment horizon; the yield curve indicates that we could be in for another two years worth of market turmoil. So, consider this article as a 48-month ex-ante analysis.
Here are the four overvalued stocks to sell:
Stocks to Sell: Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is in freefall after capitulating by nearly 50% since the turn of the year. Looking forward, Nvidia is faced with a few challenges. First of all, the company is faced with re-openings and surging inflation, which could dent its PC gaming sales. Also, supply-chain woes continue to be troublesome to semiconductor companies as the time for delivery still sits around 26 weeks.
Lastly, NVDA stock is overvalued as it is trading at 13.45x its sales and 44.35x its cash flow. I’d personally short the stock as it has a long way to drop before it reaches its intrinsic value.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock’s year-to-date slump of more than 70% doesn’t make it a “buy the dip” opportunity by any means. Its recent subscriber slowdown coupled with the password sharing saga means that there’s significant idiosyncratic risk linked to this stock. Moreover, consumers will likely cut costs on ancillary goods, such as subscriptions, as the economy continues to fade with contractionary monetary policy.
Let’s look at matters from a quantitative vantage point. NFLX stock is overvalued as its stock is trading at 144x its cash flow. Additionally, NFLX stock is faced with a downward momentum spiral as it’s trading below its 10-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.
Stocks to Sell: Chevron (CVX)
This might seem like an odd culprit to many, but give me a chance to explain. Firstly, it’s likely that energy prices have peaked as interest rates are rising, which is likely to slow consumer spending power. In addition, supply-chains are gradually freeing up as the Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index indices are gathering steam once more. The final systemic factor I’d mention is that non-core inflation — energy and food products — is more elastic than core inflation, meaning we could see a sharp drawdown in energy prices soon as consumer spending power starts to wane.
Don’t get me wrong, Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) operations have been robust during the past year, as conveyed by its year-over-year revenue growth of 84.52%. Nevertheless, at a price-to-book ratio of 1.99x, it has to be concluded that CVX stock is overvalued.
I personally classify Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) stock as a meme stock bubble asset. CVNA stock has slumped by more than 90% during the past year as investors discovered fault lines in the company’s business model. Carvana is in free fall as its high beta of 2.59x exhibits excess sensitivity to 2022’s bear market. Furthermore, the company operates in the durable goods space, which is on a cyclical downturn as consumers cut back on expensive discretionary spending.
On a final note, Carvana is overvalued, with its stock trading at 27.32x its book value. Thus, I believe CVNA stock has a long way to drop before it trades at a realistic price.
On the date of publication, Steve Booyens held an indirect long position in CVX and NVDA. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.